Showing posts with label Money. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Money. Show all posts

Is it good time to invest in Oil?

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Well, it all depends on your trading style. Looking at the charts for USO (my favorite Oil ETF), everytime you say it cant go lower, it does just that. For me, I am going to wait for oil to actually make a higher low (swing high) before looking at investing in oil for the long run. What's interesting is that even though Oil continues to go lower, the price at the pump has stopped going lower and in fact is higher than it was months ago when oil was more per barrel.

When crude breaks above $50/barrel which would be late March/early April. On a daily chart it's forming a sideways base after it's down-trend ended in December.

If you buy now you're taking a speculative view in anticipation of the upside possibility and would need a contingency plan at a price where you will cut your loses if you're wrong.

Some analysts say : oil has quite a bit lower to go. I think the recession is going to get worse yet and unemployment is going to rise more. We have large amounts of oil in storage, excluding the strategic reserve. I think the price will eventually go below $20. And rise to around $75 in a couple of years.

Best advice is till the recovery in the share market in the world market started to come, no one should purchase the crude oil in the MCX.

Slumdog Millionaire Child Actors Underpaid, still in slums

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This is one of the most hyped movies in years. It struck me as truly sad to learn that two of its child stars were dramatically underpaid for their roles, are still living in horrific slum conditions, and have even been told that they will not get any more money until they are 18 and stay in school the whole time! A bit colonial, no, Danny Boyle?

read more | digg story

Dollar is still Strong.....

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The great challenge confronting the foreign exchange market at the start of 2009 is finding a good alternative to the US dollar. One of the ironies of market events during 2008 was that the US financial crisis produced a flight to safety in the dollar. The dollar emerged triumphant from a financial debacle that centred on $1,300bn (€960bn, £890bn) of subprime US mortgage loans. The fallout has triggered a $32,000bn decline in global stock market capitalisation and driven all the Group of Seven leading industrialised countries into recession.

The dollar slumped against the euro during the final weeks of 2008 but fears about the financial system still drove US Treasury yields down to zero on three-month paper and less than 2.1 per cent on 10-year notes. This fear factor is likely to sustain demand for the dollar during the early months of 2009.
There is not now a clear alternative to the dollar because all big economies have slid into recession. Real gross domestic product could contract by 1.5 per cent in both the US and Europe during 2009 and by as much as 2.5 per cent in Japan. The decline in world trade and commodity prices will also reduce significantly the growth rates of the emerging market economies. South Korea and Taiwan are already in severe slumps. The growth rate of China could halve.
Source FT... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5b21dafc-db5a-11dd-be53-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

49 Banks That Refund All ATM Fees

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BANKS WITH UNLIMITED ATM REFUNDS NATIONWIDE, WITH NO OR MINIMAL RESTRICTIONS:
Acacia Federal Savings Bank No Fee Choice Checking
Unlimited, reimbursements post monthly
Charles Schwab High Yield Investor Checking
Unlimited; reimbursements post monthly
Community Bank of Pleasant Hill Rewards Checking
Unlimited; reimbursements post same day (rewards requirements do NOT need to be met)
Compass Bank
Unlimited, must mail in ATM receipts to get reimbursements
Ebank eFree Checking
Unlimited; reimbursements post same day
Etrade Max Rate Checking
Unlimited, monthly fee waived with $200 monthly direct deposit; reimbursements post same day
Fidelity mySmart Cash Checking
Unlimited; reimbursements post same day
First Republic Bank
Unlimited, requires $2,500 average balance to waive monthy fee

More details on http://consumerist.com/5115750/49-banks-that-refund-all-atm-fees

Americans Struggle With The Concept Of Spending Less Than They Earn

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These are some quotes from people who are repentant now.

"We live in a small town, and everybody looks at your clothes and what you drive and where you have your hair done," said Ms. Gamble, who earns about $2,600 a month as a grievance counselor at a local prison.

Now, she and her husband — a prison guard who brings home $2,000 a month — are grappling with $10,000 in high-interest debt. They no longer go to the movies or out to eat, except occasionally to McDonald's. They quit their Internet service. Their car was repossessed. "What we say now is, 'If we can't afford it, we can't buy it,' " Ms. Gamble said.

I want to dig into some old stats related to American savings. Americans are spending more than they are earning, pushing the national savings rate to lows not seen since the Great Depression. The Commerce Department released a report saying that personal savings fell to a negative 0.5% in 2005.

This means that people spent everything they earned and more. This is the third time that the savings rate has been negative, the previous two times were both during the Great Depression in 1932 and 1933. The savings rate has been declining since 1984 when it stood at 10.8%, in 2004 it was 1.8%.

One more repentant..

Fran Barbaro has an M.B.A. and a résumé of computer industry jobs with salaries reaching $150,000 a year. She used to have a stock portfolio worth about $1 million. She hung original art on the walls of her three-bedroom house in Boston.
But divorce, illness and motherhood drained her savings. Her home is worth less than she owes, and she owes another $200,000 to credit card companies, banks and tax collectors.

Ms. Barbaro, 50, said she knew she was living beyond her means. But her house demanded work. Her two boys needed after-school programs running $25,000 a year. Medical bills multiplied.

"These were simple day-to-day expenses," she said. "The money was always there."

Until it wasn't. Her take-home pay is $5,200 a month, but her debt payments reach $4,400.

Top 10 Reasons People Spend More Than They Earn

Rule #1 of financial freedom is spending less than you earn. If you can’t do that, you’ll never be financially successful no matter how hard you work, how many hours you put in, how many promotions you receive, or how much money you make.

It’s a simple rule, and most would consider it common sense. But, the U.S. has a negative savings rate, meaning this common sense rule may not be so common place. I recently saw a statistic that claimed that about 43% of American families spend more than they earn each year.
It’s helpful to understand why people over spend, and be aware of any that might apply to you.

10.Keeping up with the Jones’ - Psychology plays a big role in our spending habits. We want to feel as successful or more successful than those around us. We spend a lot of money to keep up that image. The reality is, the neighbors probably can’t afford that new boat either.

9. Avoiding the truth - It’s easy to overspend when you don’t keep tabs on how much you have. People will go for years unaware of their true financial situation because they’re afraid to look at what kind of mess they are in. It’s easier (temporarily) to just avoid it. They’ll pay their minimums and add new credit cards as necessary ignoring the growing debt total.

8. Counting the chickens before they hatch - In National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation, Clark Griswold made a large down-payment on his swimming pool expecting that his upcoming Christmas bonus would cover it. Instead, he was enrolled in a Jelly of the Month club. We are often similarly optimistic about incoming money. It’s spent before it’s received, and it’s often not as much as was expected nor received when expected.

7. Plastic doesn’t feel like real money - It’s common to spend more when using credit cards than cash. The experience of hading over a card that you get back is just not the same as handing over some cold hard cash and seeing it disappear.

6. Immediate gratification - It’s all around us. We’re bombarded with the immediate gratification mentality. “Instant pain relief”, “fast food”, “on demand video”, and the big financial one, “buy now, pay later”. We’re too used to getting what we want now even if we don’t know how we’ll pay later.

5. Lifestyle maintenance - Most people increase their expenses as quickly as they increase their income. The same cannot be said for decreases in income. Once we become accustomed to a certain lifestyle, it’s pretty difficult to cut back, even if our financial situation changes for the worse.

4. Poor as a child - Whether they’re trying to make up for their deprivation as a child, a fear of money being taken away that isn’t spent immediately, or a lack of financial understanding, being poor as a child is an often used excuse of overspending adults.

3. Sense of power - Spending money actually makes some people feel powerful. The more they spend, the more powerful they feel, and the only way to get that rush is to spend more money.

2. Prove self worth - Buying that fancy new car proves you are somebody, right? For some people spending makes them feel like they are worth something to the world.

1. Can’t say no - Some people feel like a failure when they can’t meet the wants of others. Whether it’s new toys for the kids, new outfit for the spouse, or a night out with the friends, some people just can’t say no, even when they can’t afford to say yes.

Text of Fed statement

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The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to establish a target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent.

Since the Committee's last meeting, labor market conditions have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production have declined. Financial markets remain quite strained and credit conditions tight. Overall, the outlook for economic activity has weakened further.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures have diminished appreciably. In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities and the weaker prospects for economic activity, the Committee expects inflation to moderate further in coming quarters.

The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. In particular, the Committee anticipates that weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.

The focus of the Committee's policy going forward will be to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that sustain the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level. As previously announced, over the next few quarters the Federal Reserve will purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand its purchases of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities as conditions warrant. The Committee is also evaluating the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities. Early next year, the Federal Reserve will also implement the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Federal Reserve will continue to consider ways of using its balance sheet to further support credit markets and economic activity.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Christine M. Cumming; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 75-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, and San Francisco. The Board also established interest rates on required and excess reserve balances of 1/4 percent.

What others say about ZIRP??

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FT: US and UK rates are negative in real terms – by at least 3% and 1.5% respectively – while eurozone rates are still positive by a whisker. So is the global economy headed towards zero interest rates? The answer is that, in real terms, it has already arrived.

CIBC: Cut the funds rate to zero, and there's nothing left to do. Not so. Central banks could move out the curve, buying longer-dated securities and forcing their rates down to zero. They could lend money in higher volumes directly to economic participants, as the Fed is doing in the commercial paper market.

Mishkin (via Thoma): One common view is that when a central bank has driven down short-term nominal interest rates to near zero, there is nothing more that monetary policy can do to stimulate the economy. That view is false. Expansionary monetary policy to increase liquidity in the economy can be conducted with open market purchases, which do not have to be solely in short-term government securities.

Goldman Sachs (not online): With riskless short-term interest rates now close to zero, conventional monetary policy is becoming ineffective. What are the alternatives? Three options with a relatively high likelihood of near-term implementation by the Fed: 1) a large-scale fiscal stimulus program, 2) more proactive use of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for purchasing and securitizing mortgages, and 3) a precommitment by Fed officials to keep the federal funds rate low for a "considerable period"If these policies fail to result in an economic pickup, Fed officials might (4) purchase long-term Treasury and Agency securities. The Treasury might (5) decide to purchase risky assets outright, and this could again perhaps be financed by Fed money creation.

What Zero Interest Rates Means to us??

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If the Fed funds rate did drop to zero, it would not mean free money for consumers or businesses. The zero rate would only apply to the reserves that banks are required to maintain and that they lend to one another. Customers would still have to pay some interest, but the rates could be extremely low for some business borrowers.

But there are psychological reasons why the Fed would prefer not to cut its rate below 1%. The closer the Fed gets to zero, the more likely that investors will worry the U.S. economy is facing a long period of misery on par with what Japan faced after its real estate markets crashed in the early 1990s.

0% interest will also mean that I will pull my money out if that's that I get keeping in the banks, and possibly invest in gold because it will fuel inflation and not growth, with economy deteoriating, no chances of artifical growth with 0%. however it might take away billions of $ of deposits that folks will pull out and possibly either buy hard real estate on 100% cash or buy gold, some will buy stocks. All in all, Banks will feel the pinch more because they will lose deposit and 10 times the leverage on every single $ pulled out. When economy was doing OK, 1% interest rate in 2001 fueled housing.

America's Future Job Market

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So get ready for the future IT job market guys....
ALL THE BEST!!!!

Tracking the $700 Billion Bailout

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Dozens of banks and a handful of insurers have applied for funds from the Treasury Department as part of the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. The Treasury has transferred capital to 30 of these companies and to A.I.G. More are expected to announce their participation in the coming weeks.





Source New York Times

What is ZIRP(zero interest rate policy)???

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Zero interest rate policy is coming again.. Japan had to maintain its benchmark interest rate at or near zero for most of the 1999-2006.....

America is almost there too. Since October 29th, the target for the federal funds rate has been at 1%, but the rate at which funds actually change hands, known as the “effective rate”, has averaged around 0.25%.

The US is at 1% and Japan at .3%. Some analysts even reckon the Fed could move toward outright ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) to revive the economy and financial system.

We are nowhere near the end of this housing/credit/insolvency crisis and think ZIRP is not out of the question in our future. Each time a new crisis erupts, the fed will print/cut/inject in an effort to contain it, but will eventually run out of monetary ammunition... That's when the real hyperinflationary fireworks will begin.

With the Fed funds rate already down to 1 percent, and below one percent on many days, the central bank is fast approaching what economists call the “zero bound.”

The Bank of Japan had to maintain its benchmark interest rate at or near zero for most of the 1999-2006 period, before policymakers finally felt comfortable that the economy was in a sustainable recovery.

The real question for policy makers is what to do if they reach a zero rate and still want to rev up the economy. Fed officials have studied the question closely, and the Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, gave a famous speech on the issue when he was a Fed governor in 2002.


US Debt Bush Sets 50-Year Record

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50-Year Record on Sept. 22. $10 Trillion on Sept. 30, 2008.

The gross national debt compared to GDP (how rich we are) reached its lowest level since 1931 as Reagan took office in 1981. It skyrocketed for 12 years through Bush I. Clinton reversed it at a peak of 67%. Bush II crossed that line on Sept. 22 and hit 69% on Sept 30. That's the highest it's been since 1955 (53 years ago).

Bush did three things to skyrocket the debt from $5.7 trillion to $10 trillion:
1. He lowered taxes on the rich (by far the biggest item).
2. He invaded Iraq instead of winning in Afghan-Pakistan (another $600 B).
3. He loosened controls on Wall Street.

As it happens, McCain backed all three policies:
(1) He backed Bush's tax cuts for the rich and now wants to give them bigger tax cuts.
(2) He was gung-ho for the Iraq war from the start.
(3) When Katie Couric asked Sarah Palin to name one time McCain suggested regulating Wall Street, she couldn't—because he never did. He crowed in the Wall Street Journal how he was always against regulation.

Obama opposed the first two and said Wall St. needed regulating.



(Sources for graph.)

What a derivative is and how this is part of the Wall Street problem?

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Question/Comment: On the NewsHour tonight, the speaker stated that some the problem with the fall of Wall Street is related to use of derivatives and lack of regulation of this. Could you explain further what a derivative is and how this is part of the problem?

Paul Solman: As law professor Frank Partnoy explained in a story we did a few years ago: "Derivatives are financial instruments whose value is linked to something else. They're basically fancy instruments that have evolved over the last ten years that enable investors and institutions to bet on virtually anything, from interest rates or exchange rates to commodities."

Our NewsHour story explains the derivation of derivatives, and I suggest you watch and/or read it. But what's important today is that a multi-trillion dollar market in these bets has mushroomed without any real regulation, in part because in 2000, in the words of one account, hours before Congress was to leave for Christmas recess, Senator Phil Gramm slipped a 262-page amendment into the appropriations bill forbidding federal agencies to regulate the financial derivatives industry.

Forbidding indeed.

Now in point of fact, rather innocent bets like futures or options are also derivatives, but what the speaker meant was a TYPE of derivative known as a credit default swap. Very simple, really. It's a bet on whether some entity - a company, a government agency - is going to default on its credit and go bankrupt.

An example: Someone who loaned money to Lehman Brothers (by buying their bonds) might bet on Lehman going belly-up. Why? To protect their bonds. Lehman fails; they lose on the bonds, but cash in on the bet. It's a form of insurance. The price they pay for the "credit default swap" is, in essence, the insurance premium.

Why would someone else take the other side of the bet? WRITE the insurance, that is? Because it looked like easy money. How likely was it that Lehman Brothers would go bankrupt, a firm that had been in business, more or less, since 1844? Wouldn't YOU have given someone 100-1 (assuming you like to bet)?

But now, with so many firms going bankrupt, such bets have turned out to be killers. Literally, it would seem. AIG is mainly an insurance company. So maybe it shouldn't come as a surprise that it wrote lots of credit default swaps. Indeed, it even borrowed money to do so. But when the people with whom it bet - its so-called "counter-parties" - appeared ready to cash their bets, the lenders to AIG said, in effect: "Time for you at AIG to put up more collateral on your loans, because those bets of yours are looking shaky."

But how was AIG going to raise more collateral? By selling off assets going down in value? That would simply drive them down more, lowering the value of AIG's collateral, meaning they'd have to come up with even more collateral. A classic vicious circle, downward spiral, negative feedback loop - call it what you will.

Meanwhile, if AIG was in trouble with its lenders, its credit rating would drop, thus forcing AIG to put up even MORE collateral. More negative feedback. Down, down and down.

All kicked off in part because AIG went heavily into the credit insurance business, using derivatives known as credit default swaps.

Credit Default Swaps

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Credit-default swaps are complex financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on a company's ability to repay debt. Their value falls as investor confidence increases. Recently, many credit-default swaps collapsed along with the market for mortgage backed securities. This is what prompted the government fearful that the entire credit-default market would unravel to lend $85 billion to insurer American International Group, one of the world's biggest insurers of the bonds.

Example ABC Inc.

1) Investor buys a bond from ABC Inc.

2) The investor gets insurance for the bond by paying a bank a fee, usually as a percentage of the value of the bond.

3) Bank insures the bond for the investor and agrees to pay the investor the value of the bond if


ABC Inc. defaults.

Among the risks:

The bank may not have the assets on hand to pay the investor if ABC Inc. defaults

The investor may be speculating that ABC Inc. will default and use the transaction to make a profit

The credit-default swaps on ABC's debt in the market may exceed the value of ABC's bonds many times over.

Lehman CDS Payout On October 21: One of the most expensive payouts in the history of this market.

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What is Credit Default Swap?

Suppose you are Citi Bank & bought bonds worth Rs 100 Cr from Lehman, now your bond value might go up or down so you have take an insurance from Barclays by paying say just Rs 10 Lakhs. In fact you are securing safety of your Rs 100Cr bond by paying just Rs 10 Lakhs. There are some people who do short selling of these bonds, like selling bonds without buying it and they also get these bonds insured, they are called naked CDS.

And just like in case of Nifty future trading & Nifty Spot market volume if you compare, you will see futures are traded 5-6 times more in volume compare to volume of spot market. So, in this case too naked CDS will be worth 5-6 times or more compare to spot CDS.

On Oct 10th payout was done done for those who were holding bonds, and the payout amount was $138bn. On Oct 21st payout for naked CDS will be done which is expected to be 5-6 times more than spot CDS, hence it might be $400-600bn who knows? Since Lehman is bankrupt hence those guys who insured these naked bonds need to pay such a hugh amount. We expect 2-3 big banks who insured these naked CDS to go bankrupt on Oct 21st, Watch Out!!!

In theory, a CDS is a contract in which a bondholder buys insurance — known as protection — against that bond defaulting. In practice, however, CDSs have become hugely popular among investors trading on the likelihood of a bond default without holding the underlying bond. The market has proved particularly popular with hedge funds, in part because it offers an opportunity to "short sell" bonds.

Idiots who made money by selling insurance on Lehman bonds will learn a lesson on Oct 21st. These idiots were betting that Lehman will be rescued like Bears! $400 billion in CDS’s — just take a look at the bond debt issued by Lehman on its bankruptcy schedules, it was $138 billion, so you know there are some naked CDS’s out there. $60 trillions CDS are outstanding 90% held by people not owning the underlying bonds with no regulation or exchange……………regulation …………what regulation?
Who will get impacted most or might go belly up?

Derivatives specialists insist it is impossible to predict which investors will be hit hardest by the losses on Lehman CDSs, which are spread far and wide, as Lehman was one of the most actively traded credit default swaps. Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland are likely to be prominent among those required to pay out on Lehman CDSs. Meanwhile, counterparties failing to meet their CDS obligations to the two banks could lead to significant writedowns. Against this, tangible shareholders' equity bases of £20bn to £30bn seem like cloth tents in a hurricane.

On the heels of similar auction processes for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Washington Mutual late last month, on Oct 10th auction for CDS of Lehman were done for the bond holder and on Oct 21st payout will be done for naked bond holders. For now, traders in the equity market are concerned about the prospects for the settlement, adding that its uncertainty is casting a dark cloud over the most likely holders of the debt — big banks such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Chase.
This Lehman credit default swaps settlement auction will likely be one of the most expensive payouts in the history of that market, something the government is certainly keeping an eye on.

For Common Man - Lessons to Learn

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Don’t waste your hard earned money. Don’t use Credit Cards. Don't take un necessary loans.
Spend Wisely.

Here is Warren Buffet’s advice to young people

"Stay away from credit cards and invest in yourself and Remember :

A. Money doesn't create man; it is the man who created money.

B. Live your life as simple as you are.

C. Don't do what others say, just listen to them, but do what you feel good.

D. Don't go for brand name; just wear those things in which u feel comfortable.

E. Don't waste your money on unnecessary things; just spend on those who really are in need.

F. After all it's your life so why give chance to others to rule your life."

Warren Buffet's Life

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There was a one hour interview on CNBC with Warren Buffet, the second richest man who has donated $31 billion to charity. Here are some very interesting aspects of his life:

1. He bought his first share at age 11 and he now regrets that he started too late!

2. He bought a small farm at age 14 with savings from delivering newspapers.

3. He still lives in the same small 3-bedroom house in mid-town Omaha , that he bought after he got married 50 years ago. He says that he has everything he needs in that house. His house does not have a wall or a fence.

4. He drives his own car everywhere and does not have a driver or security people around him.

5. He never travels by private jet, although he owns the world's largest private jet company.

6. His company, Berkshire Hathaway, owns 63 companies. He writes only one letter each year to the CEOs of these companies, giving them goals for the year. He never holds meetings or calls them on a regular basis. He has given his CEO's only two rules.

Rule number 1: do not lose any of your shareholder's money.

Rule number 2: Do not forget rule number 1.

7. He does not socialize with the high society crowd. His past time after he gets home is to make himself some pop corn and watch Television.

8. Bill Gates, the world's richest man met him for the first time only 5 years ago. Bill Gates did not think he had anything in common with Warren Buffet. So he had scheduled his meeting only for half hour. But when Gates met him, the meeting lasted for ten hours and Bill Gates became a devotee of Warren Buffet.

9. Warren Buffet does not carry a cell phone, nor has a computer on his desk. His advice to young people:

"Stay away from credit cards and invest in yourself and Remember :

A. Money doesn't create man; it is the man who created money.

B. Live your life as simple as you are.

C. Don't do what others say, just listen to them, but do what you feel good.

D. Don't go for brand name; just wear those things in which u feel comfortable.

E. Don't waste your money on unnecessary things; just spend on those who really are in need.

F. After all it's your life so why give chance to others to rule your life."