With all the bad news coming out now, a lot of people, both in America and worldwide are wondering if the US is about to enter a period of depression, not just a recession.
Depression is defined as a as a cumulative decline in GDP of more than 10.0% over four consecutive quarters. This data will refer to the official quarterly GDP figures as reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce.
5 Coming Aftershocks of the Credit Crisis
Here’s how you could earn 50% to 400% on every one of them, starting with
the next 379% windfall…
Aftershock #1: The collapse of investment banks… Bad news right? For the investment banks it’s a catastrophe. For others it’s going to be a windfall. That’s because “Two Big Money Shops” are about to takeover that business and become the next Goldman Sachs. Know how to play this mega “takeover” and steady gains of 222% and 160% are likely to come rolling in, as you’ll see below…
Aftershock #2: How about new government regulations? Starting immediately – and for at least the next 18 months – they’re going to destroy a whole crop of weakened companies. One new regulation secretly put into effect overnight by the U.S. Treasury is about to flatten one company in particular – you’ll see ways to profit right away, to the tune of 87% on this one.
Aftershock #3: The next shoe to drop in the credit crisis is a big one. $600 billion in loans is about to come due on these overlooked “mortgages.” And right now the next wave of “foreclosures” is imminent. When this explodes in the next 30 days, you’ll discover ways to play this event for consistent gains of 30% to 200%, week in and week out…
Aftershock # 4: If you think insurance giant AIG is the main event in crisis, think again. Seven other giants are about to get hit with a “triple-whammy.” Some will survive; others will thrive. We’ll give you the opportunity to score 50% to 75% on the way down – and a massive 379% on the way up. You’ll see below.
Aftershock # 5: No doubt, the crisis is global. So what is the International Monetary Fund doing to help? Few know this yet, but they’re about to pump a heartwarming $100 billion into a select few economies. When the money hits, you could be looking at a string of 100%-plus winners. See below.
Checkout here.. How you can gain from them...
http://www.oxfonline.com/TriggerEvent/EDI1108.html?pub=EDI&code=EEDIJB06&o=1588746&u=35929968&l=1596246
the next 379% windfall…
Aftershock #1: The collapse of investment banks… Bad news right? For the investment banks it’s a catastrophe. For others it’s going to be a windfall. That’s because “Two Big Money Shops” are about to takeover that business and become the next Goldman Sachs. Know how to play this mega “takeover” and steady gains of 222% and 160% are likely to come rolling in, as you’ll see below…
Aftershock #2: How about new government regulations? Starting immediately – and for at least the next 18 months – they’re going to destroy a whole crop of weakened companies. One new regulation secretly put into effect overnight by the U.S. Treasury is about to flatten one company in particular – you’ll see ways to profit right away, to the tune of 87% on this one.
Aftershock #3: The next shoe to drop in the credit crisis is a big one. $600 billion in loans is about to come due on these overlooked “mortgages.” And right now the next wave of “foreclosures” is imminent. When this explodes in the next 30 days, you’ll discover ways to play this event for consistent gains of 30% to 200%, week in and week out…
Aftershock # 4: If you think insurance giant AIG is the main event in crisis, think again. Seven other giants are about to get hit with a “triple-whammy.” Some will survive; others will thrive. We’ll give you the opportunity to score 50% to 75% on the way down – and a massive 379% on the way up. You’ll see below.
Aftershock # 5: No doubt, the crisis is global. So what is the International Monetary Fund doing to help? Few know this yet, but they’re about to pump a heartwarming $100 billion into a select few economies. When the money hits, you could be looking at a string of 100%-plus winners. See below.
Checkout here.. How you can gain from them...
http://www.oxfonline.com/TriggerEvent/EDI1108.html?pub=EDI&code=EEDIJB06&o=1588746&u=35929968&l=1596246
Thirty financials hit 52-week lows
The stocks of 30 of the more than 80 financial companies in the S&P 500 hit 52-week lows on Thursday, as the markets took a beating. The biggest decliners were Prudential Financial Inc, which was down as much as 25.4%, to $20.14, and American Express Co., which fell as low as $16.55, a 16.6% fall from its $19.85 opening price.
The averages broke through their previous lows set in October and tumbled to fresh lows before rebounding slightly. The S&P and Nasdaq have not been at these levels since 2003. Each of the major indices is down more than -2.60%, with the Nasdaq down more than -3.25%. Declining stocks are ahead of advancing stocks by a 4:1 margin while the down volume is ahead of up volume by 9:1. The financials continue to get pummeled, down another -3.90%, led by Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC).
The averages broke through their previous lows set in October and tumbled to fresh lows before rebounding slightly. The S&P and Nasdaq have not been at these levels since 2003. Each of the major indices is down more than -2.60%, with the Nasdaq down more than -3.25%. Declining stocks are ahead of advancing stocks by a 4:1 margin while the down volume is ahead of up volume by 9:1. The financials continue to get pummeled, down another -3.90%, led by Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC).
Depression Possible
George Soros, billionaire money manager, had his turn to join fellow hedge fund managers testifying before Congress.
Soros made a point of scaring the hell out of them.
According to Reuters, Soros said "a deep recession is now inevitable and the possibility of a depression cannot be ruled out."
He added "hedge funds will be "decimated" by the current financial crisis and forced to shrink their portfolios by 50-75 percent."
Soros made a point of scaring the hell out of them.
According to Reuters, Soros said "a deep recession is now inevitable and the possibility of a depression cannot be ruled out."
He added "hedge funds will be "decimated" by the current financial crisis and forced to shrink their portfolios by 50-75 percent."
UK Recession - When will it End???
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Labels:
Hubdub
UK is heading into a serious recession.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/475/United_Kingdom?cluster_id=3697
http://www.rgemonitor.com/475/United_Kingdom?cluster_id=3697
Some Good News to Cheer For
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Labels:
Economy
Economy to turn Good in 2009
When you hear an economist is being honored for being one of the most accurate forecasters in the country, naturally you have ask him when will we see the end to these endless foreclosures, bailouts, triple-digit bouncing stock markets, tightwad shoppers and comparisons to the Great Depression?
Joel Naroff, a Philadelphia economist being honored in New York City Thursday , says a turnaround could come next year if consumers, banks, businesses and investors would just stop overreacting. He analyzes the economy with as much psychology as math and attempts to see past emotion, uncertainty and fear.
"While there is a lot of reason to be concerned right now, I think people are overreacting to the situation," he said. "When the psychology changes, you will wind up getting a stronger reaction in the economy than basic economic factors would argue for."
Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors, was selected by Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business to receive the 2008 Lawrence R. Klein Award.That recognizes him as having the most accurate predictions from 2004 through 2007 among 50 economists who forecast for the Blue Chip Economic Indicators published by Aspen Publishers in New York City. Naroff also will be the keynote speaker at the 45th annual economic forecast lunch sponsored by JPMorgan Chase bank and the ASU business school Dec. 10 at the Phoenix Convention Center. Naroff has also been honored as a top economist by MSNBC and Bloomberg Business News.
Here's what he has to say about some parts of the economy.
• Housing market. When prices come back down to where they were in 2002 or 2003, wiping out the unusual run-up in prices that occurred in 2005 and 2006, the market will settle down. In Arizona, prices have dropped back to their 2004 levels, according to the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, so he says we probably have about another six months of price drops to go.
"The housing market in large parts of this country is really not that bad," he said.
One reason Naroff was so accurate about how bad the economy would get in the last few years is that he visited Phoenix in September 2005 and read a newspaper article that quoted Realtors predicting prices would continue to rise. He spotted a bubble and was able to predict what would happen when it burst.
• Unemployment rate. He predicts the national unemployment rate, which reached 6.5 percent in October, will peak at 7.5 to 7.7 percent next year. But he said no one can be certain about that because of the emotions ruling the market today.
"Businesses are doing everything they can to survive these circumstances, so we could see an overreaction," he said.
• Next year. What is likely to happen is that the economic indicators are bound to be better than this year and start to make people feel better, Naroff predicts. If auto sales, for example, increased from this year's expected dismal 10 million to 14 million next year, that would still be a weak market by historical standards. But it would be a 40 percent increase and possibly enough to restore the country's confidence.
When you hear an economist is being honored for being one of the most accurate forecasters in the country, naturally you have ask him when will we see the end to these endless foreclosures, bailouts, triple-digit bouncing stock markets, tightwad shoppers and comparisons to the Great Depression?
Joel Naroff, a Philadelphia economist being honored in New York City Thursday , says a turnaround could come next year if consumers, banks, businesses and investors would just stop overreacting. He analyzes the economy with as much psychology as math and attempts to see past emotion, uncertainty and fear.
"While there is a lot of reason to be concerned right now, I think people are overreacting to the situation," he said. "When the psychology changes, you will wind up getting a stronger reaction in the economy than basic economic factors would argue for."
Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors, was selected by Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business to receive the 2008 Lawrence R. Klein Award.That recognizes him as having the most accurate predictions from 2004 through 2007 among 50 economists who forecast for the Blue Chip Economic Indicators published by Aspen Publishers in New York City. Naroff also will be the keynote speaker at the 45th annual economic forecast lunch sponsored by JPMorgan Chase bank and the ASU business school Dec. 10 at the Phoenix Convention Center. Naroff has also been honored as a top economist by MSNBC and Bloomberg Business News.
Here's what he has to say about some parts of the economy.
• Housing market. When prices come back down to where they were in 2002 or 2003, wiping out the unusual run-up in prices that occurred in 2005 and 2006, the market will settle down. In Arizona, prices have dropped back to their 2004 levels, according to the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, so he says we probably have about another six months of price drops to go.
"The housing market in large parts of this country is really not that bad," he said.
One reason Naroff was so accurate about how bad the economy would get in the last few years is that he visited Phoenix in September 2005 and read a newspaper article that quoted Realtors predicting prices would continue to rise. He spotted a bubble and was able to predict what would happen when it burst.
• Unemployment rate. He predicts the national unemployment rate, which reached 6.5 percent in October, will peak at 7.5 to 7.7 percent next year. But he said no one can be certain about that because of the emotions ruling the market today.
"Businesses are doing everything they can to survive these circumstances, so we could see an overreaction," he said.
• Next year. What is likely to happen is that the economic indicators are bound to be better than this year and start to make people feel better, Naroff predicts. If auto sales, for example, increased from this year's expected dismal 10 million to 14 million next year, that would still be a weak market by historical standards. But it would be a 40 percent increase and possibly enough to restore the country's confidence.
US Debt Crisis - Will it shrink US into depression???
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Labels:
Bankruptacy,
Economy,
Markets
Depression is defined as a as a cumulative decline in GDP of more than 10.0% over four consecutive quarters. This data will refer to the official quarterly GDP figures as reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce.
The Debt Crisis, the Primary Catalyst of the Economy’s Decline, Is Far Too Big
for the U.S. Government to Control
1. Based on the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds report, there are now $52 trillion in interest-bearing debts in the U.S.
2. Based on estimates provided by the U.S. Government Accountability Office and other sources, it’s safe to assume that there are also at least $60 trillion in contingency debts and obligations now starting to kick in — for Social Security, Medicare and other pensions.
3. Separately, the Bank of International Settlements reports that the total value of debts and bets placed worldwide (derivatives) is $596 trillion, or more than a half quadrillion!
“If only Washington can avoid the mistakes it made in the 1930s … if only Washington can preemptively nip this crisis in the bud … if only Washington can be our lender and spender of last resort … Great Depression II will never come to pass.”
What they don’t see is the fact that the debt build-up in the U.S. today is far greater than it was on the eve of Great Depression I. Indeed, in the chart below,
Prior to the 1930s, the total debt in the U.S. was between 150% and 160% of GDP. Now it’s close to 350% of GDP.
Price for US Economy in Depression at intrade.com
The Debt Crisis, the Primary Catalyst of the Economy’s Decline, Is Far Too Big
for the U.S. Government to Control
1. Based on the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds report, there are now $52 trillion in interest-bearing debts in the U.S.
2. Based on estimates provided by the U.S. Government Accountability Office and other sources, it’s safe to assume that there are also at least $60 trillion in contingency debts and obligations now starting to kick in — for Social Security, Medicare and other pensions.
3. Separately, the Bank of International Settlements reports that the total value of debts and bets placed worldwide (derivatives) is $596 trillion, or more than a half quadrillion!
“If only Washington can avoid the mistakes it made in the 1930s … if only Washington can preemptively nip this crisis in the bud … if only Washington can be our lender and spender of last resort … Great Depression II will never come to pass.”
What they don’t see is the fact that the debt build-up in the U.S. today is far greater than it was on the eve of Great Depression I. Indeed, in the chart below,
Prior to the 1930s, the total debt in the U.S. was between 150% and 160% of GDP. Now it’s close to 350% of GDP.
Price for US Economy in Depression at intrade.com
White Cap Index - Best bet in these down times
Almost every stock market index is down - considerably - for the year. But not the White Cap Index.
It's up 135%... in the midst of one of the worst financial crises in history. How the White Cap Index Slaughters Oil – and EVERY Other Benchmark – By More Than 95% Each Year
What is a White Cap Stock???
Some stocks simply have such great potential … and sport such impressive fundamentals that “everyone” knows they will easily double, triple, even increase tenfold in short order.
Most times, it’s because such companies are poised to ride a brand new trend, and the institutional wave of money that follows, into the stratosphere.
Such “sure-things” capture the essence of what refer's to as White Cap stocks.
White Cap Index Additions
http://whitecapreport.com/white-cap-index-additions/
Just visit below the websites for more information.
http://whitecapreport.com/what-is-a-white-cap-stock/
http://www.oxfonline.com/WhiteCap/WC110879.html?pub=WCR&code=EWCRJB02&o=1587280&u=35929968&l=1595991
It's up 135%... in the midst of one of the worst financial crises in history. How the White Cap Index Slaughters Oil – and EVERY Other Benchmark – By More Than 95% Each Year
What is a White Cap Stock???
Some stocks simply have such great potential … and sport such impressive fundamentals that “everyone” knows they will easily double, triple, even increase tenfold in short order.
Most times, it’s because such companies are poised to ride a brand new trend, and the institutional wave of money that follows, into the stratosphere.
Such “sure-things” capture the essence of what refer's to as White Cap stocks.
White Cap Index Additions
http://whitecapreport.com/white-cap-index-additions/
Just visit below the websites for more information.
http://whitecapreport.com/what-is-a-white-cap-stock/
http://www.oxfonline.com/WhiteCap/WC110879.html?pub=WCR&code=EWCRJB02&o=1587280&u=35929968&l=1595991
US Debt Bush Sets 50-Year Record
50-Year Record on Sept. 22. $10 Trillion on Sept. 30, 2008.
The gross national debt compared to GDP (how rich we are) reached its lowest level since 1931 as Reagan took office in 1981. It skyrocketed for 12 years through Bush I. Clinton reversed it at a peak of 67%. Bush II crossed that line on Sept. 22 and hit 69% on Sept 30. That's the highest it's been since 1955 (53 years ago).
Bush did three things to skyrocket the debt from $5.7 trillion to $10 trillion:
1. He lowered taxes on the rich (by far the biggest item).
2. He invaded Iraq instead of winning in Afghan-Pakistan (another $600 B).
3. He loosened controls on Wall Street.
As it happens, McCain backed all three policies:
(1) He backed Bush's tax cuts for the rich and now wants to give them bigger tax cuts.
(2) He was gung-ho for the Iraq war from the start.
(3) When Katie Couric asked Sarah Palin to name one time McCain suggested regulating Wall Street, she couldn't—because he never did. He crowed in the Wall Street Journal how he was always against regulation.
Obama opposed the first two and said Wall St. needed regulating.
(Sources for graph.)
The gross national debt compared to GDP (how rich we are) reached its lowest level since 1931 as Reagan took office in 1981. It skyrocketed for 12 years through Bush I. Clinton reversed it at a peak of 67%. Bush II crossed that line on Sept. 22 and hit 69% on Sept 30. That's the highest it's been since 1955 (53 years ago).
Bush did three things to skyrocket the debt from $5.7 trillion to $10 trillion:
1. He lowered taxes on the rich (by far the biggest item).
2. He invaded Iraq instead of winning in Afghan-Pakistan (another $600 B).
3. He loosened controls on Wall Street.
As it happens, McCain backed all three policies:
(1) He backed Bush's tax cuts for the rich and now wants to give them bigger tax cuts.
(2) He was gung-ho for the Iraq war from the start.
(3) When Katie Couric asked Sarah Palin to name one time McCain suggested regulating Wall Street, she couldn't—because he never did. He crowed in the Wall Street Journal how he was always against regulation.
Obama opposed the first two and said Wall St. needed regulating.
(Sources for graph.)
Bin Laden may be planning massive attack against the U.S.--- NTARC
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Labels:
Terrorism
The National Terror Alert Response Center is reporting that Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda may be planning a massive terror attack against the U.S. that will "outdo by far" the 9/11 attacks.The report cites the Arab newspaper Al-Quds Al-Arabi in London.
Reference Link
Reference Link
US Markets - Dow takes a absolute U Turn
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Labels:
Markets
In the morning
Volume is light for this time of day. Breadth is mixed with issues and volume bullish while new highs to new lows are bearish (negative divergence). Advancing Issues: 1860 / Declining Issues: 884 ( Ratio: 2.10 ). Advancing Volume: 113,914,540 / Declining Volume: 50,191,909 ( Ratio: 2.27 ). New 52-Week Highs: 2 / New 52-Week Lows: 24.
In the noon
Volume is light for this time of day. Breadth is bearish across the board. Advancing Issues: 1075 / Declining Issues: 1446 ( Ratio: 0.74 ). Advancing Volume: 214,417,984 / Declining Volume: 430,737,233 ( Ratio: 0.50 ). New 52-Week Highs: 5 / New 52-Week Lows: 96.
The U Turn
Volume is light for this time of day. Breadth is bearish across the board. Advancing Issues: 760 / Declining Issues: 1915 ( Ratio: 0.40 ). Advancing Volume: 241,344,682 / Declining Volume: 975,030,384 ( Ratio: 0.25 ). New 52-Week Highs: 5 / New 52-Week Lows: 162.
Volume is light for this time of day. Breadth is mixed with issues and volume bullish while new highs to new lows are bearish (negative divergence). Advancing Issues: 1860 / Declining Issues: 884 ( Ratio: 2.10 ). Advancing Volume: 113,914,540 / Declining Volume: 50,191,909 ( Ratio: 2.27 ). New 52-Week Highs: 2 / New 52-Week Lows: 24.
In the noon
Volume is light for this time of day. Breadth is bearish across the board. Advancing Issues: 1075 / Declining Issues: 1446 ( Ratio: 0.74 ). Advancing Volume: 214,417,984 / Declining Volume: 430,737,233 ( Ratio: 0.50 ). New 52-Week Highs: 5 / New 52-Week Lows: 96.
The U Turn
Volume is light for this time of day. Breadth is bearish across the board. Advancing Issues: 760 / Declining Issues: 1915 ( Ratio: 0.40 ). Advancing Volume: 241,344,682 / Declining Volume: 975,030,384 ( Ratio: 0.25 ). New 52-Week Highs: 5 / New 52-Week Lows: 162.
Top Stories of the Day
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Labels:
Economy
Circuit City Files for Chapter 11 Protection- AP
Circuit City Stores Inc., the nation's second-biggest electronics retailer, filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday but plans to stay open for business as the busy holiday season approaches.
Government provides record aid package to AIG- AP
GM shares hit 60-year low on cash burn worries- AP
Stocks surrender gains despite $586 bln China stimulus- AP
DHL to cut 9,500 jobs and close US service centers- AP
Nortel Networks posts 3Q loss, plans 1,300 job cuts- AP
New York Times takes charge for New England papers- AP
Fannie Mae posts $29B loss, may tap gov't funding- AP
Oil nears $63 after news of China's stimulus plan- AP
Bailout Central: AIG Comes Back for More, Big Three on Deck- Tech Ticker
Circuit City Stores Inc., the nation's second-biggest electronics retailer, filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday but plans to stay open for business as the busy holiday season approaches.
Government provides record aid package to AIG- AP
GM shares hit 60-year low on cash burn worries- AP
Stocks surrender gains despite $586 bln China stimulus- AP
DHL to cut 9,500 jobs and close US service centers- AP
Nortel Networks posts 3Q loss, plans 1,300 job cuts- AP
New York Times takes charge for New England papers- AP
Fannie Mae posts $29B loss, may tap gov't funding- AP
Oil nears $63 after news of China's stimulus plan- AP
Bailout Central: AIG Comes Back for More, Big Three on Deck- Tech Ticker
Roubini's Interview on Circuit City Bankruptcy
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Labels:
Bankruptacy
Roubini speaks on Circuit City Bankruptcy File and The US Financial Crisis.
From CNBC:
The economy will worsen in the coming months and cause the market to fall another 20 to 25 percent in the United States and abroad, said Nouriel Roubini, a New York University business professor, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday.
“There's going to be negative growth all the way to the end of 2009," he said. “The surprises from now are going to be on the downside, for the economy, for earnings, for the financial system."
Job losses will accelerate in the next months, Roubini said, and he expects a weak economic recovery in the short and mid-term.
“There's going to be a very slow recovery, because you have the financial system that's impaired; earnings are not going to grow very fast, and therefore the stock market will go sideways for quite a while,” he said.
Will Fed cut interest rates in November??
Interest rate futures currently imply another half point cut to 0.50 percent in the Fed's benchmark overnight funds rate at its next scheduled policy meeting on Dec. 16.
Interest rate futures were also reflecting concern following very gloomy jobs data on Friday that showed U.S. unemployment jumped to a 14 year high of 6.5 percent in October from 6.1 percent in September. Lockhart warned this trend would continue in the months ahead.
The Federal Reserve can operate with zero interest rates if it has to and the U.S. recession will get worse before recovering in the second half of next year, a top Fed policy-maker said on Friday.
"Now is not a time to be tentative," Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart told a business luncheon.
"In theory, we could go to zero (interest rates)," he said in response to a question from the audience. "You can operate monetary policy at zero by injecting liquidity into the system and in effect separating the interest rate from the liquidity measures that you've picked, so that's a possibility."
Interest rate futures were also reflecting concern following very gloomy jobs data on Friday that showed U.S. unemployment jumped to a 14 year high of 6.5 percent in October from 6.1 percent in September. Lockhart warned this trend would continue in the months ahead.
The Federal Reserve can operate with zero interest rates if it has to and the U.S. recession will get worse before recovering in the second half of next year, a top Fed policy-maker said on Friday.
"Now is not a time to be tentative," Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart told a business luncheon.
"In theory, we could go to zero (interest rates)," he said in response to a question from the audience. "You can operate monetary policy at zero by injecting liquidity into the system and in effect separating the interest rate from the liquidity measures that you've picked, so that's a possibility."
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