What has held the USD up and why that's going to change

From a major News Source:

The primary reason the USD has held up so well in the last decades, in spite of ever worsening US trade and budget deficits that add to over $1 trillion a year combined, is that the US was an export economy's dream customer. Because the US was such a good customer to the world, they bought our US Treasury bonds, and lent trillions in other ways to the US consumer. As long as the US consumer could carry that process out, our trade partners could make bank on the US and USD.

However, once the US consumer is tapped out, and cannot effectively make a return on investment of our trade partners, the rationale for the continuation of the USD goes away. All that remains after that is a budget busted US Federal government. At that point, why would our trade partners continue to buy all the US treasury bonds and such, and debase their currencies, if the US cannot be such a good customer anymore? At that point, the USD will rapidly fall into a devaluation crisis.

None of us in the US has ever dealt with the twin threats coming our way in the next few years. The first is a real economic depression. The second will be the demise of the US dollar, or at the very least, its severe devaluation like 70% or more (at first).

I would like to point out that in the last great depression in the US in the 1930's, we did not have a combination of a currency crisis with the economic crisis. The USD, although it fell compared to gold, held up well. Deflation increased the value of anything called cash, including gold.

This time, the outcome will be different. This time, the US faces an economic depression AND a currency crisis soon after. How far off is this?

Well, first, we are already well into the beginning of the economic depression. The damage done to the world credit and financial markets has been stunning since August 07. Over $35 trillion of value has been lost in the world financial markets. That has spilled over into the real economy now, and we will start to see bigger and bigger layoff notices. Economic demand will decline and we won't see any mere one year recession, like all the pundits say ‘we foresee 5 quarters of economic decline in the US…'

This time we are talking on the scale of 5 years of economic decline and unemployment getting over 20%. The Great Depression lasted ten years, and the US had well over 25% unemployment. US economic production was halved!

Comments from Google Finance.

http://finance.google.com/group/google.finance.983582/browse_thread/thread/517cc954d51f0696

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7171.html

Obama and the Economy

Economic Stimulus;
Obama likely to act fast

Quick passage of an economic stimulus package is high on Obama’s agenda, even more pressing for the moment than the tax package that he promoted repeatedly during his campaign.

Mortgages:
A pledge to aid homeowners
Obama has pledged to help hard-pressed homeowners, but he will have to move quickly to forestall a new wave of foreclosures.

Some in Congress favour direct mortgage relief, but others worry that the cost- on top of the bank bailout- would be too expensive.

Federal regulation;
Tighter reins on Wall Street
Obama called for reorganising the financial regulatory system months before the housing and credit crisis spiralled into an economic debacle. He outlined six principles, but offered few details.

Auto industry:
In Detroit, no cash, no credit, no time
The problems of the Detroit auto-makers are pressing.

General Motors, Ford Motor and Chrysler are rapidly running out of cash in the worst sales market for new vehicles in 15 years. Both GM and Ford are expected to announce billions of dollars more in losses for the third quarter on Friday, and the threat of bankruptcy will grow without some form of federal assistance.

Health care:
Overhauling of industry will have to wait
Democrats’ campaign rhetoric aside, few health care analysts expect the new president and Congress to undertake a sweeping overhaul of the health care industry any time soon.

Technology:
A cabinet voice for the shaping of policy
If the technology industry has its way in the Obama administration, it will get easier to hire more smart people from around the globe.

Tech companies have long argued that they need the best and brightest engineers if they are going to compete in the global economy. Obama has endorsed the industry’s call for raising the number of H-1B temporary work visas, which are available now to only 65,000 skilled foreign engineers each year. (The visas are all claimed within minutes.)

Trade:
Cooperation fades and protectionism rises
What consensus there was on international trade seemed to evaporate with the failure of world trade talks last summer? Indeed, with the world on the brink of a global recession, led by the United States and Europe, the fear of a rise in protectionism grows.

US Markets Rose on speculation of rate cut

U.S. stocks rose for the first time in three days as investors speculated the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates after unemployment surged, General Motors Corp. warned it’s running short on cash and pending home sales dropped. Interest-rate futures on Friday showed a 99% chance the Fed will cut its target rate by 50 basis points.

The gains were more than halved in the final hour of trading after Barack Obama said there is no quick fix for the economy.

The Federal Reserve can operate with zero interest rates if it has to and the U.S. recession will get worse before recovering in the second half of next year, a top Fed policy-maker said on Friday.

"Now is not a time to be tentative," Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart told a business luncheon.

"In theory, we could go to zero (interest rates)," he said in response to a question from the audience. "You can operate monetary policy at zero by injecting liquidity into the system and in effect separating the interest rate from the liquidity measures that you've picked, so that's a possibility."

Interest rate futures currently imply another half point cut to 0.50 percent in the Fed's benchmark overnight funds rate at its next scheduled policy meeting on Dec. 16.

Interest rate futures were also reflecting concern following very gloomy jobs data on Friday that showed U.S. unemployment jumped to a 14 year high of 6.5 percent in October from 6.1 percent in September. Lockhart warned this trend would continue in the months ahead.

Liveblogging The Obama Event

Stocks remain higher as President-elect Obama is about to begin his press conference on the economy. It will be Obama's first public appearance since his triumph in Tuesday's election. The averages have been higher all day and investors are hoping to hear what ideas and plans the President-elect has to help the economy. He has already said he will form a task force to study the reasons as to what caused the financial crisis but investors are hoping his team of advisors can lead the country back to prosperity beginning in January

Obama's economic advisory board made up of 17 people. The members include the likes of Warren Buffett, Larry Summers, Robin Rubin and Google chairman Eric Schmidt. Obama will meet with them before his press conference.

2:34 pm: DJIA: 8889.

2:44 pm: DJIA: 8929. The Dow loves a tardy Obama.

2:54 p.m.
Obama: must act 'swiftly' to resolve economic crisis

2:55 p.m.
Obama says U.S. needs middle class rescue plan

2:55 p.m.
Obama says fiscal stimulus plan needed

2:58 p.m.
Obama says he'll review Bush's program to stabilize markets




3:00 p.m.
Obama says focus needed on job creation

3:04 p.m.
Obama pledges quick action on economy as president

Barack Obama pledged to act quickly on the economy once he is president, telling reporters following a meeting with his economic advisory team on Friday that he will take steps to ease the credit crisis, help families and restore growth. He said the middle class needs a relief plan and that a fiscal stimulus plan is "long overdue." He also said his team will "review" the Bush administration's plan to stabilize financial markets.

Obama: Economic challenge of life time.

The stock market gives up half of its gains as Obama makes his statements.

http://change.gov/

Asked by the Tribune's John McCormick about what he hoped to see in a successor for his Senate post, Obama stressed that the choice was entirely up to Gov. Rod Blagojevich. But Obama said his personal criteria would not be different than any voter's. He said he wants to see someone who is both capable and passionate about helping the middle class.

Three-Month Dollar Libor Falls to Lowest Since 2004, BBA Says

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks charge each other for three-month loans in dollars dropped to the lowest level in four years.

The rate slid 10 basis points to 2.29 percent, the lowest level since November 2004, according to British Bankers' Association data today. It was its 20th consecutive decline.

The TED spread, which measures the difference between the cost of three-month loans and the yield on U.S. Treasury bills of the same maturity, dropped below 200 basis points for the first time since Sept. 12, the last day before the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

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Daily Indices (same-day expiry): FTSE, Dow; FTSE Futures, Dow Futures; S&P Futures, Nasdaq 100 Futures; DAX 30 Futures, CAC 40 Futures

Indices settled on a fixed date in the month: FTSE Futures, Dow Futures; FTSE/Dow Differential; DAX 30 Futures, DAX/FTSE Differential; CAC 40 Futures, IBEX 35 Futures, MIB 30 Futures, SOFFEX Futures, S&P 500 Futures, Nasdaq 100 Futures, Nikkei 225 Futures, Hang Seng Futures, Eurostoxx Futures.

Single Quarterly and Weekly Shares: FTSE350 and others, Eurostoxx 50; US stocks, Dax 30 Futures.

Economic Groups Indices: Resources, Utilities, Information Technology, Financials.

Sectoral Indices: Mining, Oil & Gas, Chemicals, Aerospace & Defence, Beverages, Food Processors & Producers, Pharmaceuticals, Tobacco, General Retailers, Leisure, Entertainment & Hotels, Media & Photography, Restaurants Pubs and Breweries, Transport, Food & Drug Retailers, Telecommunication Services, Electricity, Gas Distribution, Water, Banks, Insurance, Life Assurance, IT Hardware, Software & Computer Services.

Currencies: GBP/USD, EUR/$, EUR/GBP, USD/Yen, USD/CHF, GBP/Yen, GBP/CHF, EUR/Yen, EUR/CHF, Yen/USD, AUD,USD, CAD/USD.

Interest Rates: Eurodollar, Short Sterling 3-month, Euroswiss, Euribot

Bonds: Bund Futures, Bobl Futures (German), T-Bond Futures (US), Gilt Futures (UK), JGB Futures (Japan), 10-Year Note (CBOT).

Options: Indices (FTSE 100, Wall Street Futures, DAX 30 Futures, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Futures); Bonds (Bund, T-Bond, Gilt Futures); Interest Rates (Eurodollar, Short Sterling 3-month); Currencies (Yen/USD, CHF.USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD all IMM); Metals (Gold, Silver); Oils (Light Crude).

Commodities: Brent Cruse Oil, NYMEX Crude, Orange Juice, Corn, Cotton No.2, Live Cattle, Unleaded Gasoline, Wheat.

Metals: Gold, Silver, Platinum.

Movies: Wagers on the final movie revenue on the first weekend or four weeks, first weekend supremacy or four week supremacy (i.e. gross takings from first day of release, rounded up or down to the nearest half-million).

Top Headlines of the Day

According to Reuters, the government is set to announced the country's tenth straight month of jobs losses.

Reuters reports that Chrysler is burning through it cash quickly and the company may have to be broken up.

Reuters reports that GM (GM) and Ford (F) investors are preparing for deep losses.

Reuters reports that the IMF warned of a deepening recession in developed countries.

Reuters reports that South Korea cut interest rates again.

Reuters reports that Microsoft (MSFT) says it is not interested in a new offer for Yahoo! (YHOO).

Reuters reports that Panasonic will buy Sanyo.

Reuters reports that Samsung passed Motorola (MOT) as the largest seller of mobile handsets in the US.

Reuters reports that the CEOs of The Big Three are asking for $50 billion in federal aid.

The Wall Street Journal reports that a number of financial firms are disturbed by the lack of clarity about the Treasury's bailout plan.

The Wall Street Journal reports that hedge funds are selling billions of dollars in securities, helping to drive the market down further.

The Wall Street Journal reports that AIG (AIG) is under increasing financial pressure and is asking the Fed to ease terms of its $85 billion loan.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Microsoft (MSFT) is trying to steal Google's (GOOG) mobile search deal with Verizon (VZ).

The Wall Street Journal reports that The Big Three would give the government warrants as part of an aid package.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Disney (DIS) expects a slowdown at its theme parks.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Airbus says it sees a decline in jet orders.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the IEA says oil supply will tighten.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Qualcomm's (QCOM) forecast for the cellular market was weak.

The Wall Street Journal reports that lending at the Fed's discount window fell.

The Wall Street Journal reports that cuts in dividend payouts are hurting many long-term investors.

The Wall Street Journal reports that some private equity firms may force investors to put in additional capital.

The Wall Street Journal reports that AT&T (T) bought a WiFi company to increase its wireless foot print.

The New York Times reports that the China economy is slowing more rapidly than almost anyone expected.

The FT reports that debt fears hit shares in the Las Vegas Sands (LVS).

Bloomberg reports that British Airways stock was up over 20% on the company's improved forecast.

Credit Default Swaps On US Debt

A very good article by 247wallst on US debt. Obama, Broke Now, And More Broke Every Day.

The most admired analysts covering the car industry, The Center for Automotive Research, recently reported that a collapse of the US auto world would kill three million jobs. That would take unemployment to 8% even if no one else in America lost a job. It would damage personal income by nearly $300 billion.

Read more on 247wallst

Check out 24/7 Wall St.

Hi,

I want you to take a look at : 24/7 Wall St.

China feeling the heat of US Crisis

BEIJING: Short of food and running low on cash, a group of men huddled under a bridge in Beijing and waited for someone, anyone, to come by and offer them work-any work.

“This is the worst I’ve ever seen it,” said a day labourer in his 40s who, in better times, had often been hired for construction crews.
“Normally I can get a job in a few days, but I’ve been out of here a month already,” he said.

The suddenness with which the Chinese economy has lost momentum is Beijing’s immediate concern. Annual growth in the third quarter sank to 9 percent, well down from its scorching 11.9 percent pace in all of the last year and putting the country on track to record its first annual expansion since 2002 to be measured in single digits, not double digits.

Since then, the ravages of the global financial crisis have raised the spectre of the further slowdown, to 8 percent. Most countries would salivate at such growth, but for china it is a tipping point: Anything less, experts say, and the economy cannot create enough jobs to keep up with the mass of humanity, at least 15 million people, entering the labour market every year.

“If economic growth fell below 8 percent there would be tension, social tension, complaints and job losses,” said Chen Xingdong, chief economist at the BNP Paribas bank in Beijing.

We are not out of woods on credit crisis

Investors take out money out of stocks, bonds and money market funds to buy safe assets, forcing the yield on short-term Treasury bills down. A lower yield indicates greater concern about the financial system.

The yield on the One-Month Treasury Note is currently at 0.09%, which is still extremely low by historical standards. This indicates that investors continue to flock to the safest of safe haven assets, and we are by no means out of the woods yet in terms of the credit crisis.

Historic election leads to historic newspaper selloff

The Washington Post says it sold out within hours of going on sale today, even though it increased its retail distribution by 30 percent. The Post is planning to print another 150,000 copies of a commemorative edition that will go on sale this afternoon. The Chicago Tribune is also among the papers going back to press to satisfy demand.

The New York Times is printing an extra 50,000 copies of today’s paper for the local market after completely selling out, according to spokeswoman Catherine Mathis. (See the Romenesko journalism blog for more details about heavy press runs at other U.S. newspapers.)

Here’s more from Mathis:

We increased our print run for single copy by about 35% but know first hand that some vending machines and newsstands are selling out. … In 2004 we saw an increase in sales of around 50,000 copies the day after the election and based on what we’ve seen today, we expect to significantly surpass those sales. We also plan to increase our print run for single copy sales tomorrow, although not as much as today.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/05/AR2008110502795.html?hpid=topnews

Historic election leads to historic newspaper selloff

Are we in for a Huge Selloff on Wallstreet???

Well it seems so. Election rally is over. Most of the Q4 reports are in. Now the focus for the stock markets will return to macro economic & company announcements about earnings guidance. One both fronts, they are not expected to get better for sometime. Meaningful govt help will not come until 2009.

The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index is an unloved instrument. When at its highs it means that the United States creates nothing, and just pushes around paper and capital. When shrinking, it means not even that ability will save the economy from a catering disaster.

The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index, which covers almost 90 percent of the economy, dropped to 44.4, weaker than forecast and the lowest level since records began in 1997, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction. Other reports showed job losses climbed.

No positive signs yet. Lower interest rates are not giving any positive impact as "Banks may not pass all of the benefits of lower interest rates on to consumers and businesses."

US Markets - Dowjones Closing Prediction

Where will the DJIA close on Wednesday, November 5, 2008?

Intrade - Realtime Electoral Vote Predictor

Economic Data to Look For This Week

• U.S. presidential elections and future Policies (Trade, Fiscal, Approach to Crisis, Foreign Policy)
• Plunging U.S. Auto Sales Continue Exacerbate the Woes of Big 3 Automakers
• Shrinking Credit for U.S. Consumers: Growing risks to consumer spending and debt default?
• U.S. Q3 Productivity: Can productivity hold up the labor market and economy amid recession?
• U.S. Labor market continues to shed jobs: Will lay-offs worsen ahead?
• U.S. Municipal Bonds Now Cheap But Are They Safe?
• U.S. corporate earnings reports for the 3Q as well as estimates for the 4Q
• EMU in Recession
• US Economic Growth: Forecasts for Q4
• Will the Financial Crisis Accelerate the Enlargement Process in the Euro zone?

• Danish Mortgage Bond Market: Why Is It So Large? What Makes It Special?
• Could Swedish Banks Get Burned By Heavy Baltic Exposure?  

• Romania Economic Outlook: Gravity-Defier On The Verge Of Collapse?
• BoE Meeting – A 50 bps cut is consensus although a sharper cut is possible
• ECB Meeting
• Itau Merged With Unibanco to Become The Largest Bank In The Southern Hemisphere
• Reasons behind the decrease in the Debt to GDP Ratio in Brazil
• Has inflation in Chile Peaked?
• Is India's Real Estate Bubble Bursting?
• Indian Banks: Vulnerable to Defaults and Liquidity Squeeze
• South Korean Policy Response to Crisis May Ease USD Liquidity, But What About KRW Liquidity?
• Asian economies deliver fiscal stimulus as risks from global slowdown worsen
• China’s Financial Sector: How Vulnerable?
• Chinese Manufacturing Contracting, Even Slower Growth and Industrial Production Ahead?
• Monetary and Credit Easing in China?
• Real economy effects of Equity Collapse and Property Market weakness in Hong Kong
• China-Taiwan: Closer Ties
• Will Egypt's real Estate Sector Face a Slowdown?
• Impact of the financial crisis on private equity in the MENA region
• Are the MENA equity markets bottoming out?
• Ukraine headed for currency devaluation?
• Ethanol falling market value affecting biofuel producers?
• EU Weighs Progress of Western Balkans: Good News For Croatia, Bad News For Macedonia

NABE Industry Survey: A Significant Downshift

The Nov. 3, 2008, report presents the responses of 102 NABE members to a survey, conducted between Oct. 10 and Oct. 23, on business conditions in their firm or industry, and reflects third-quarter 2008 results and the near-term outlook.

“Respondents to the October NABE Industry Survey were considerably more negative than they were in July, suggesting that the ongoing financial crisis is pulling down the overall economy,” said Ken Simonson, Chief Economist, Associated General Contractors of America. “The survey’s measure of demand growth fell by the largest amount in the history of the survey, and for the first time since 2001, more respondents reported declining demand than rising demand. Every time since 1982 that this indicator has turned negative, the economy has later proved to be in a recession. Looking ahead to 2009, 90% of survey panelists said their forecast for 2009 U.S. output growth became more pessimistic between July and October. Falling profit margins outnumbered rising margins 3-1 last quarter among respondents’ firms—the worst reading since 1982. For the first time since 2003, more panelists’ firms cut jobs than added them, and the employment outlook for the next six months is even more negative. The percentage of respondents with rising capital spending fell for the third straight quarter and barely topped the share of firms that reduced it, while forecasts for capital spending over the next 12 months declined sharply.”

Highlights
Demand for goods and services increased at 30% of respondents’ firms and fell at 35%, the first time since 2001 that more respondents reported declines than increases. This is consistent with other evidence that the U.S. economy fell into a recession in the third quarter. Weakness was especially pronounced in the goods-producing sector, where only 6% of firms reported increased demand while 61% reported declining demand.

Respondents to the October survey were significantly more pessimistic about the macroeconomic outlook than they were in the July survey. A full 38% of respondents expect U.S. real GDP to be lower in 2009 than in 2008, and 79% expect growth of less than 1%. Only one respondent expects growth of more than 3% in 2009. Ninety percent of survey panelists said their forecast for 2009 became more pessimistic between July and October, compared to only 2% who said they became more optimistic. Thirty-eight percent became significantly more pessimistic, reflecting the deterioration in financial markets that occurred in September and October.

Weakening U.S. market conditions and past increases in commodity prices continue to squeeze profit margins. For the third consecutive quarter, reports of falling profit margins (44% of respondents) outnumbered reports of rising margins (15%).

October marked the first NABE survey since 2003 where more panelists reported declining employment than reported rising employment. Services was the only sector where employment increases were more prevalent than declines.

The percentage of respondents reporting capital spending growth edged lower for the third consecutive quarter, leaving only a few more companies increasing capital spending than reducing it. Respondents expect capital spending to decline in the goods-producing and FIRE sectors, but to continue to rise in the TUIC and services sectors The dichotomy was especially sharp in capital spending plans for computers and communications equipment (C&C) over the next 12 months. None of the respondents from the goods-producing sector expected capital spending on computers and communications equipment to rise over the next 12 months. By contrast, 49% of the respondents from the services sector expect spending to rise, with only 13% expecting a decline.

The share of panelists who said materials costs rose last quarter tumbled to 41% from a record 75% in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the percentage who said their materials costs fell soared to 21% from low single-digit shares in the previous several surveys. Panelists split, 28%-28%, as to whether prices for non-labor inputs will rise or fall in the next three months.

The fraction of respondents who said their firms raised prices in the latest quarter climbed for the third straight quarter, to 38%, but price cuts occurred at 11% of the firms, double the percentage reported in July. Looking ahead one quarter, more respondents expect to cut prices (23%) than raise them (21%), a sharp reversal from the past four surveys when price-increase expectations outran price-cut expectations by double-digit margins.

Skilled labor remains the only major input that is in short supply. Twenty-seven percent of firms reported a shortage of skilled labor, down from 40% in the July survey.

Tight credit market conditions appear to be having a growing impact on the economy. Forty-eight percent of respondents indicated that the tightening credit conditions had had a moderate or severe negative impact on their businesses, while 71% reported that credit conditions had had a moderate or negative impact on their customers. Slightly more than one-third of respondents stated that actions by the Federal Reserve of either lowering interest rates or liberalizing credit access had a positive effect on their business, with the finance sector experiencing the greatest impact.

US Markets - Post Election Moves

http://finance.google.com/group/google.finance.22144/browse_thread/thread/def49e95134664ad/92a4d921a7b81321?hl=en#92a4d921a7b81321

Democrats 60 seats could prompt a dramatic sell-off on Wall Street

Will the Democrats achieve a "magic 60" in the US Senate?

A perfect storm could give Democrats magic 60 in Senate says cnn.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/08/senate.election/index.html

But lot of investment professionals don’t necessarily want to give one party the keys to the entire city. That means there could be a huge sell off if Democrats win 60 seats or more.

With the election of 60 or more members, the winning party has the power of cloture. Under cloture, filibustering of bills brought to the Senate is not effective because the ruling party can limit the amount of time for debate. The net result is that the controlling party has the ability to pass bills faster and without consideration of bipartisan recommendations.

In recent elections, the stock market was not dramatically affected by Election Day events. The Dow closed up 101 points in 2004 to close at 10,137.05 on the day after the election. And in 2000, it edged down just 45 points, closing at 10,907.06 the day after the election amid the uncertain outcome of the Bush-Gore contest.

Post-Election Market Moves

1992 — Bill Clinton wins presidency: Dow closes at 3223.04 on Nov. 4, down 29.44 from Election Day.

1996 — Bill Clinton reelected: Dow closes at 6177.71 on Nov. 6, up 96.53 from Election Day.

2000 — Election results unclear: Dow closes at 10907.06 on Nov. 8, down 45.12 from Election Day.

2004 — George W. Bush reelected: Dow closes at 10137.05 on Nov. 3, up 101.32 from Election Day.

US Markets - Remembering October 2008

October was the worst month for the Standard & Poor’s index of 500 stocks in 21 years — since the 1987 stock market crash.

But the final week was the best week for the market in 34 years.

As befits such a wild month, it was the most volatile in the 80-year history of the S.& P. 500.

The huge gains of the final week were reminiscent of the sharp recoveries from bear market lows in 1974 and 1982. Both of those moves came while the economy was mired in recession, as it almost certainly is now.

If Monday’s stock market lows prove to be the low prices for this cycle, the bear market will have ended with the S.& P. 500 down 46 percent from the peak it reached in October 2007.

That would make the bear market almost, but not quite, as bad as the 1973-74 bear market, which ended with the index down 48 percent.

In the 2000-2 bear market, the fall was 49 percent.

The hectic market action in October spread across most of the globe. Remarkably, the American market was one of the calmer markets during the month. Several had more volatility and larger swings in prices.

Nor was the volatility limited to stock prices. Oil prices fell 33 percent during October, making this the worst month for that market since oil futures began trading in 1983. Oil is down to just under $68 a barrel, from a peak over $145 in July.

One volatility measure, shown in the accompanying charts, is the number of days in which an index closes up or down at least 4 percent.

In normal times, the market goes years without having even one such day. There were none, for instance, from 2003 through 2007. There were three such days throughout the 1950s and two in the 1960s.

In October, there were nine such days.

The accompanying chart shows the months, from 1928 through the present, when the S.& P. 500 had at least five days with 4 percent moves. Most of them were during the 1929 crash and the Great Depression.

Until now, September 1932 held the record for the most days with big moves, at eight.

Two days during October ended with the index leaping more than 9 percent, something that had happened only nine times in the previous 80 years.

For the week, the S.& P. 500 was up 10.5 percent, the best weekly gain since a 14.1 percent rise in the week that ended Oct. 11, 1974.

If the rebound this week indicated that the bear market of 2007-8 had ended, it lasted just over a year and hit bottom on Monday, at 848.92. It recovered to 968.75 by week’s end.

There were similar moves in most major indexes. The Dow Jones industrial average ended the week up 11.3 percent, at 9,325.01, and the Nasdaq composite climbed 10.9 percent, to 1,720.95.

For the month, the S.& P. 500 was still down 16.9 percent, the worst showing for the index since it fell 21.8 percent in October 1987. The Dow fell 14.1 percent, and the Nasdaq index lost 17.7 percent.

Both moves — weekly and monthly — affected every sector and nearly every stock. Only seven of the stocks in the S.& P. 100 fell this week, while just nine were up for the month.

Of the 30 stocks in the Dow industrials, only one fell this week. General Motors dropped 16 cents to $5.79 amid talks on a possible merger with Chrysler and additional government aid.

For the month, all 30 were down, with Alcoa turning in the worst performance with a decline of 49 percent. But in the final week, it rose 22 percent, ending at $11.50 after trading as low as $9 and as high as $22.35 during the month. It traded at more than $47 last year.

During the bear market, financial stocks led the way down. The S.& P. financial index fell 65 percent from the high it reached in early 2007 to the low close on Monday. By Friday, the index had recovered 17 percent.

US Economic Report - October

Huge Job Losses Foreseen.

In the week ahead, the main event on the economic calendar is the October U.S. employment report. That data, due Friday, is expected to show that U.S. nonfarm payrolls shed 200,000 jobs in October, according to a Reuters poll, while the unemployment rate is forecast to rise 6.3 percent.

Other key economic reports include the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reports on manufacturing on Monday and non-manufacturing, or service-sector, activity on Wednesday.

Both are expected to produce readings showing that the economy contracted in October.