Things To Anticipate Over The Next 90 Days

|
  • Service industries (retail, restaurants, hotels and affiliated) that had job growth in 2008 will begin to show declines along with everyone else.
  • If the decline in the financials continues at the pace of the last 30 days then the whole financial system will be tested again. The short sellers are very interested in finding out what happens.
  • Oil prices to continue falling (Still way too much supply out there in the short run)
  • 50 basis point Fed rate cut (Effective funds rate is already at 0.30)
  • Automaker(s) going bankrupt.
  • Significant amount of companies being downgraded, which will mostly affect on bonds.
  • Declining bond prices (Especially CMBS)
  • Some companies will not be able to afford to rollover their debt and that will bankrupt them
  • Even with all these problems, expect the government to NOT intervene as they wait for the new administration to take over. Looks like the short sellers are counting on it.

0 comments: